How will we stay up?

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aclassman
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Joined: 28 Jan 2012, 19:49

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245047Post aclassman »

If you read the Morecombe forum they believe barnet will turn them over at home and so will Coventry on last game so are saying that the Cambridge game is the must win game for them
jamiefrbees
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Joined: 24 Jan 2011, 11:46

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245088Post jamiefrbees »

Very plausible summary.

Personally I think Morecambe will draw 1-1 Tuesday night. Lose 2-1 to us on Saturday. Manage a draw at Coventry on the final day while we beat Chesterfield 1-0
bigjohnakinde
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Joined: 14 Aug 2014, 11:41

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245096Post bigjohnakinde »

jamiefrbees wrote:Very plausible summary.

Personally I think Morecambe will draw 1-1 Tuesday night. Lose 2-1 to us on Saturday. Manage a draw at Coventry on the final day while we beat Chesterfield 1-0
Then we'll go down.
aclassman
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245114Post aclassman »

It's a bloody tall order that we finish with 4 wins from last five games (although we have had the two from last three under our belt) but still need two wins from last two games and hope that Morecombe only gain one point from last three games

If we pull that off then the squad and club deserve to keep their league status
jamiefrbees
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Joined: 24 Jan 2011, 11:46

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245125Post jamiefrbees »

bigjohnakinde wrote:
jamiefrbees wrote:Very plausible summary.

Personally I think Morecambe will draw 1-1 Tuesday night. Lose 2-1 to us on Saturday. Manage a draw at Coventry on the final day while we beat Chesterfield 1-0
Then we'll go down.
Correct
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ninestein
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245130Post ninestein »

Right now i'd take a situation where we go into the last game with a mathematical chance. Whether it be us or Morecambe, us or Grimsby, or any one of 3 potentially with a chance. We've done well over the past few weeks to stay in touch. Most of us thought we'd be gone by now.
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ninestein
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245132Post ninestein »

If Morecambe do draw on Tuesdsy night, then we beat them, and they draw at coventry, a big goal difference swing over the last two games could do it. But we'd have to overturn 9 goals. If we go up there and win 2-0, we would have to thump Chesterfield Hawaii 5-0 style, but with them already relegated, it might not be out of the question. (Reaches for more wine...)
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PBBee
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245141Post PBBee »

ninestein wrote:If Morecambe do draw on Tuesdsy night, then we beat them, and they draw at coventry, a big goal difference swing over the last two games could do it. But we'd have to overturn 9 goals. If we go up there and win 2-0, we would have to thump Chesterfield Hawaii 5-0 style, but with them already relegated, it might not be out of the question. (Reaches for more wine...)
I did mention this whilst we have tried to see out games 1-0 (although we got a 2nd on Saturday).

Although nothing compares to Westley seeing our a 1-1 draw with Port Vale. Those 2 subs will stick with me for a long long time.
ccollis_869
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Joined: 31 Jan 2011, 21:05

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245149Post ccollis_869 »

jamiefrbees wrote:Very plausible summary.

Personally I think Morecambe will draw 1-1 Tuesday night. Lose 2-1 to us on Saturday. Manage a draw at Coventry on the final day while we beat Chesterfield 1-0
No chance they will manage a draw at the Ricoh. Even if they have already secured a playoff place, they will a win before going into the playoffs, especially as it is at home against a team at the bottom end of the table.
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MCB
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245155Post MCB »

I've put £2.80 (i.e. the remnants of an account) on FGR being relegated at 45/1 (returns £128.80)

Obviously we're still going down, but I reckon the odds are decent considering. They think they are now safe, and on the beach (well their fans do)

Reason being - they are 6 points ahead of us, with a superior goal difference (they are 5 goals better off).

So, they need to lose all there 3 games, we need to win both of ours. Then we will be level on points. But of course, a +1 for us in each win, and a -1 in each of there games (which is the minimum a win / loss will give us) will leave us completely level.

So i'm basically saying in 1 of the 5 remaining games - they will lose by more than 1 goal, or we will win by more than 1.

FGR's remaining games:

Yeovil vs Forest Green
Luton vs Forest Green
Forest Green vs Grimsby

You'd expect Luton to trash them. Grimsby would be interesting if they still need a point. Yeovil are interesting as they are also not clear of relegation (you can't get odds on them) - they are on 46 points, but +8 goals vs us.

Yeovil vs Forest Green
Yeovil vs Mansfield
Lincoln City vs Yeovil

So after FGR they have to play 2 x play off contenders. So if they get a drubbing anywhere, it could get interesting.

The WORST thing that can happen is if Yeovil and FGR play out a draw and both secure a point to leave them both 100% secure. So just to keep things interesting, let's hope it's a narrow Yeovil win, or a big FGR one.

So, if we look at remaining fixtures involving all the relegation threatened teams - let's see what happens if we go into the last fixture with all results from now to then going our way:

YEOVIL
Yeovil vs Forest Green - Home win - 1-0
Yeovil vs Mansfield - Who cares - let' say home win 1-0
Lincoln City vs Yeovil - Irrelevant

FGR
Yeovil vs Forest Green - Home win 1-0
Luton vs Forest Green - Home win 1-0
Forest Green vs Grimsby - ??

GRIMSBY
Grimsby vs Notts County - Away Win 0-1
Forest Green vs Grimsby - ??

MORECAMBE
Morecambe vs Cambridge - Away win 0-1
Morecambe vs Barnet - Away win 0-1
Coventry vs Morecambe ?

BARNET
Morecambe vs Barnet - Away win 1-0
Barnet vs Chesterfield -

CHESTERFIELD
Irrelevant

Yeovil -13 52
-----------------------------
Forest Green -20 46
Grimsby -29 45
Morecambe -16 44
Barnet -22 43
Chesterfield 4 -33 35

Last day fixtures:
Barnet vs Chesterfield -
Coventry vs Morecambe - Away win, Morecambe def. safe. Anything else they are down if Barnet win.
Forest Green vs Grimsby - Win for either team, they are safe. Loss for Grimsby, they are down. Loss for FGR, they are down if one of the 5 relevant games has seen a winner by more than one goal.

So basically it is possible thanks to the fixtures to go into the last game with relegation in our own hands.

Very difficult to predict an outcome where anything other than 2 x wins would keep us up. A draw in one game is only possible if Morecambe get trashed in the other two (so a 0-6 win this Saturday could be beneficial, albeit only if they lose on Tuesday as well).

Special prize if anyone made it this far. :whistle:
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ninestein
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245156Post ninestein »

Going through all the permutations is probably not healthy.
However, a lot depends on these midweek games. Wins for Yeovil and Cambridge would give us a massive boost as it keeps more teams involved for another 90 mins at least.
The picture will be a lot clearer at 9:30pm Tuesday, but we can't be relegated midweek.

Chesterfield have already started wielding the axe...
https://www.chesterfield-fc.co.uk/news/ ... confirmed/

Jack Lester has departed along with several other backroom staff.

I just hope that whatever happens, we make decisions early in readiness for next season. We need to hit the ground running pre-season.
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#Beebot
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Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245162Post #Beebot »

PBBee wrote:
ninestein wrote:If Morecambe do draw on Tuesdsy night, then we beat them, and they draw at coventry, a big goal difference swing over the last two games could do it. But we'd have to overturn 9 goals. If we go up there and win 2-0, we would have to thump Chesterfield Hawaii 5-0 style, but with them already relegated, it might not be out of the question. (Reaches for more wine...)
I did mention this whilst we have tried to see out games 1-0 (although we got a 2nd on Saturday).

Although nothing compares to Westley seeing our a 1-1 draw with Port Vale. Those 2 subs will stick with me for a long long time.
I'm not convinced that we were actually playing for a draw in that game. To me it seemed like Westley sincerely thought that Nicholson's pace would cause damage down the right and that Briggs would be effective as a wide target man or whatever he was brought on to do. Both awful and nonsensical decisions, but I think he wasn't aiming for a draw.
amberforever
Posts: 2973
Joined: 22 Jan 2011, 18:37

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245209Post amberforever »

Nicholson and Briggs were possibly the worst mid season signings Ive seen turn out for us.
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ninestein
Posts: 6936
Joined: 03 Aug 2011, 20:00

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245211Post ninestein »

And them along with Sule and (harshly) Legge, lies one of the biggest frustrations of our season. We had a transfer window to make some bold changes to our squad, and we didn't take that opportunity. We ended up with squad players at best rather than first XI starters to better what we already had.

But in the spirit of this thread, I'm willing to put that to one side for now and accept that we are where we are. It's what we do in the next 2 weeks which counts. Thrre is still hope. If we make it, it will be the best escape yet under MA. A complete car crash of a season where somehow our motor comes out of it with only a minor scuff mark. On the other hand it could still yet be a write-off!
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amberforever
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Joined: 22 Jan 2011, 18:37

Re: How will we stay up?

Post: # 245280Post amberforever »

Feels like we've been banger racing in that case!
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